Afghan troop withdrawal

With only a few months left for the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan, President Barack Obama and Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai are showing signs of uneasiness. What should be the size of the US troops to be left for “training” and “assisting” Afghan security forces after July 2014? This question is worrying both Washington DC and Kabul.

 

After his recent talks with Karzai in Washington, President Obama reiterated that he was committed to the pullout of the 66,000 American soldiers and marines stationed in Afghanistan, but he wanted it to be a “responsible” move forward to protect “the gains the US troops have made”. One suggestion is that the US must retain between 3,000 and 9,000 troops in Afghanistan after 2014, whereas top US and NATO commander in Afghanistan Gen John Allen wants to retain as many as 15,000 troops to protect the US interests in the Af-Pak region. But will Obama be able to sell it to the war-weary American public?

There is a major problem which has defied a foolproof solution so far: How to prevent the Taliban’s resurgence in post-2014 Afghanistan? The Afghan national troops are not in a position to successfully face any Taliban onslaught. They are getting trained to take up the responsibility of maintaining law and order, but it is a tough task to be accomplished in the few months left before the US troop withdrawal deadline ends.

Afghanistan is actually heading for fresh chaos. The year 2014 will come with the responsibility of maintaining peace in the war-torn country falling on the shoulders of the Afghan national forces when fresh elections are also due. According to the new constitution of Afghanistan, Karzai cannot contest the polls for another term as President, and there is no one who can easily replace him. Karzai must be busy finding a person who can be remote-controlled to run the administration. It will be interesting to watch who emerges as a replacement for Karzai. However, the world community (the US, to be precise) may prefer an amendment to the Afghan constitution so that Karzai remains at the helm of affairs for a few years after 2014. This is in the interest of peace and stability in the region also.